The Flight Fleet Forecast predicts the delivery of 42, new commercial passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years. This drives a market for 86, installed engine deliveries, with the fleet in service growing from just over 60, engines today to , in The aerospace market is currently in the middle of introducing a significant number of new and re-engined aircraft programmes, with a consequent generational shift from well-established engine types to new families, which has a major impact on the engine aftermarket. In terms of units, the largest market is medium-thrust engines for single-aisle aircraft. The fleet is forecast to grow from 28, engines at the end of to 61, in , a growth rate of 3.
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Looking ahead a decade, air travel demand is anticipated to be equally robust, with an additional million people expected to enter the middle class across the planet. Growth in revenue passenger kilometers RPK will regularly exceed the annual expansion of gross domestic product GDP in most economies—particularly in high-growth areas like China and India. Even amid global trade tensions, the projections for commercial air travel remain optimistic across all regions of the world.
Consequently, the persistent demand is spawning record growth in the global fleet. For the beginning of , our forecast projects a total fleet of 39, aircraft, up more than 11, from the total of 27, Between and the beginning of , we anticipate the in-service fleet will grow annually at 3.
By , nearly 13, MAX and Aneo aircraft will have been delivered, at which time narrowbodies will represent over two-thirds of the entire global fleet. With the expansion of business in the commercial aviation industry, the maintenance, repair, and overhaul MRO market that supports it is also expected to grow.
Aside from the growth in the fleet, the increase will be driven by more expensive maintenance visits and technology enhancements. The annual average growth rate for the MRO market will be 3. The slower initial five years will be driven by the escalating number of newer-generation aircraft that enter the fleet. These aircraft have longer maintenance intervals and replacement thresholds for such things as life-limited parts than older jets.
Growth in aviation will be more concentrated in Asia and the developing world, particularly China and India. By the end of the decade, China will become the biggest global market for air travel and Asia will be the new center of global aviation activity. The annual, 10 year global forecast of aircraft fleet growth and related trends. The report also outlines the impact on MRO aftermarket demand. Explore how the various aircraft fleets will change from through across the world's regions.
A burgeoning middle class in Asia, especially in China and India, is generating more demand for air travel, which over time will shift the distribution of the global fleet. Besides buying aircraft, China and other Asian nations are also investing in new airport infrastructure and in aircraft manufacturing and aftermarket MRO services to accommodate the rising demand, much of which will be for domestic travel.
As a result, Asia is likely to be responsible for a bulk of the growth in the global fleet and MRO expenditures. By the end of the decade, China will become the biggest global market for air travel, and as a region, Asia is expected to increase its share of the global fleet by almost nine percent.
As new-generation aircraft comprise a larger portion of the global fleet, airlines will see benefits from their operation. Between 15 and 20 percent more fuel efficient, these new aircraft can cut expenditures on jet fuel and potentially improve profitability. This becomes particularly helpful if fuel prices start to rise again. Improved fuel efficiency will also help carriers reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Aside from savings on fuel, new-generation jets with advanced technology and sophisticated avionics will provide airlines increased operational flexibility and improved productivity.
Despite multiple new regional jet platforms entering service over the next few years, these aircraft classes will play a much smaller role in the global fleet moving forward. The operational flexibility and fuel efficiency of new-generation narrowbodies make them the class of choice for many different types of operators.
Delays in deliveries of new-generation aircraft prompted airlines to keep older planes in service longer than anticipated. As a result, retirements grew very slowly in In fact, many operators were forced to pull aircraft out of storage to accommodate demand. Adjustments in retirement schedules related to spikes in demand affected fuel use by airlines as the newer jets would have been more fuel-efficient and produced fewer greenhouse gas emissions.
These decisions also trickled down to the aftermarket where MRO demand rose to handle the higher servicing needs of older aircraft. As new-generation aircraft like the MAX and Aneo enter service and replace older aircraft, there will be a slight deceleration in global MRO spend over the short-term. Equipped with the newest engine technology, these engines are expected to have longer intervals between shop visits. That said, the new technology and life-limited parts on newer aircraft will be more expensive to service and replace once needed, which will push MRO spend higher over time.
This research focuses on airline fleet growth and related trends affecting aftermarket demand, maintenance costs, technology, and labor supply. The outlook reveals significant changes that are important to understand when making business decisions and developing long-term plans. Oliver Wyman Ideas offers our most recent insights on issues of importance to senior business leaders.
Trickle Down Expansion of the Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul Market With the expansion of business in the commercial aviation industry, the maintenance, repair, and overhaul MRO market that supports it is also expected to grow.
The Evolution of the Global Fleet Explore how the various aircraft fleets will change from through across the world's regions. Tom Cooper Answers 5 Questions. Analytical topics covered include: Economic GDP and traffic data measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs by geographic region and specific countries Historical financial performance load factors vs return on invested capital, jet fuel spot prices, industry profitability Passenger and cargo traffic, and airport infrastructure growth in select markets In-service fleet, retirements, orders, conversions by aircraft class wide-body, narrow-body, regional jet, and turboprop Global aircraft fleet forecast and regional fleet growth rates MRO market forecast by segment line, component, engine, airframe and aircraft platform spend Forecast sensitivity analysis based on economic health, traffic, fuel prices, and interest rates.
Oliver Wyman Ideas App Oliver Wyman Ideas offers our most recent insights on issues of importance to senior business leaders. Annual survey of aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul industry. A compendium of our latest thinking on how people, goods, and data will move in the future. How customer demands, digitalization, and a push for sustainable growth will transform aerospace. Featured In Forbes. Oliver Wyman has prepared a year forecast of the global in-service fleet and the corresponding challenges those changes portend for the MRO industry and aftermarket.
In its ninth year, the page report provides a range of data on the economics and performance of the aviation industry, as well as global capacity growth by region. Among the discrete analyses: revenue per available seat mile RASM ; jet fuel and labor costs; profit margins; load factors; and passenger yield.
Fleets data and market insights
Base Values are used to estimate future delivery values since in our view these are a more pragmatic estimation of actual business values than the inflated manufacturer list prices often used in other forecasts. Around 16, passenger jets and 2, passenger turboprops are expected to be removed from passenger service, with around 1, of the former and of the latter converted to freighter service. A small minority of the remaining aircraft may be converted to other non-commercial roles, but the vast majority of the remainder is expected to be dismantled for spare parts which will support the remaining in-service fleet. The twin-aisle market remains the last duopoly in the commercial aircraft sector today. The majority of this value is focused on the larger aircraft segments. Consequently, we expect one or more manufacturers to eventually launch a product for this market. This annual report, developed by our Ascend Flightglobal Consultancy team, encapsulates more than 80 years of combined industry experience and expertise, allied with Flightglobal s unrivalled commercial aircraft database resource, to deliver a deep insight into the future outlook for the commercial aviation industry.
Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Commentary 2019-2029
Unlock value from our fleets data to assess and forecast aircraft maintenance requirements, monitor the status of the lessor fleets and obtain global fleet competitive intelligence. Access current and historical fleets data to develop optimal commercial strategies. Cirium supplies the most complete fleets data in the industry, covering ownership information, hours and cycles, seat capacity, aircraft interiors, MRO contracts and lease-end dates. Top OEMs, MROs, aircraft lessors, insurers, airports and more, use our fleets data sets via a range of delivery methods. A new way to access fleet data by customizing the fields that are fed directly into your internal systems via an API on demand, combine fleets data with your own information to provide you with an accurate view of the global fleet. Target your specific requirements by accessing bespoke fleets, hours and cycles data to improve the quality and depth of your databases and conduct more in-depth analysis. Directly fed into your systems via API solutions on a weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly basis.
INSIGHT FROM FLIGHTGLOBAL: The Flight Fleet Forecast's outlook for Latin America
Looking ahead a decade, air travel demand is anticipated to be equally robust, with an additional million people expected to enter the middle class across the planet. Growth in revenue passenger kilometers RPK will regularly exceed the annual expansion of gross domestic product GDP in most economies—particularly in high-growth areas like China and India. Even amid global trade tensions, the projections for commercial air travel remain optimistic across all regions of the world. Consequently, the persistent demand is spawning record growth in the global fleet. For the beginning of , our forecast projects a total fleet of 39, aircraft, up more than 11, from the total of 27,